April 14, 2025 Monday Touch Point: Austin Real Estate Market Update

Good morning, Austin! It’s Dan Price here with Team Price Real Estate, bringing you the April 14, 2025 Monday Touch Point. We’re diving into the latest market data for the six-county area—Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, and Burnet. From inventory surges to a historically low new listing-to-pending ratio, this week’s update is packed with insights to empower agents and clients. Let’s break it down.

Inventory Hits Record Levels

The Austin MLS is buzzing with 15,241 active listings as of this morning—a 635.6% increase since April 2022. That’s right, we’ve added nearly 2,000 listings this month alone, outpacing the total active listings from three years ago. Year-over-year, we’re up 23.5%, and month-over-month, it’s a 14.05% jump. This flood of inventory signals a buyer’s market in many areas, with 47.3% of listings experiencing price drops. For buyers, this means leverage—think negotiating closing costs or even quirky demands like replacing every light bulb. Sellers, however, need to price competitively, especially in oversaturated zip codes.

New Listing-to-Pending Ratio: A Historic Low

The new listing-to-pending ratio, my go-to leading indicator, is at a jaw-dropping 0.45 for April so far—the lowest since January 2004’s 0.44. For the week, we’re at 0.40, with 1,594 new listings and only 248 pending. This gap shows demand has hit a wall, down 66.7% year-over-year for pending transactions. What’s driving this? Consumer confidence is shaky, with the University of Michigan’s latest report showing growing job concerns. When folks worry about employment, big purchases like homes get shelved. I predict this ratio will settle around 0.55–0.57 by mid-May, still historically low, signaling continued inventory growth.

Bifurcated Market: Prices Defy Expectations

Here’s where it gets wild: despite soaring inventory and slumping pendings, average sold prices are up 10.7% month-over-month, and median prices jumped 12%. How? It’s a bifurcated market. The bottom 35th percentile—think entry-level homes—is seeing a 30% drop in sales activity, while the top 25th percentile (luxury properties) is only down 8%. Zip codes like 78705 show this split vividly: the 90th percentile price per foot is up 66.7%, while activity overall is down 23.5%. In Spicewood, sales are up 25%, but lower-end prices are softening. This skew means pricier homes are driving the averages, even as overall transactions lag.

Opportunities for Buyers and Challenges for Sellers

Buyers, this is your moment. With 111 properties in Austin under $320,297 and $228 per square foot, value is out there—think Lago Vista, Leander, or even Spicewood. Use percentile analysis to pinpoint deals; for example, Georgetown has four properties under $335,000 and $180 per foot. Sellers, hyper-local strategy is key. Zip codes like 78749 or 78613 remain seller-friendly, with some properties fetching multiple offers. But in buyer’s markets like Kyle or Buda, price cuts and flexibility are non-negotiable. Track our daily-updated stats at teamprice.com/insights to stay ahead.

What’s Next for Austin Real Estate?

Looking ahead, I expect inventory to hit a record high within 10 days, surpassing June 2024’s 13,827 listings. Pending transactions should reach about 3,173 by month’s end, but we’re on track for the lowest cumulative sold properties since 2011. Rates are easing slightly—6.75% today—but consumer fears about tariffs and inflation (New York Fed’s 3.6% expectation) could keep demand soft. Watch next week’s inflation and new home sales data for clues. For now, agents should lean into data-driven advice, helping clients navigate this unique market with confidence.

At Team Price, we’re committed to cutting through the noise with facts. Whether you’re buying, selling, or advising, let’s make informed decisions together. Visit teamprice.com for the latest stats, and I’ll see you next Monday!

Daily Market Summary

15,241 (+23.5% YoY) : Active Residential Listings

0.40 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio

97.65% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio

6.750% :  30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate

4.374% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Timestamps 

0:00:00 Welcome to April 14, 2025 Monday Touch Point

0:01:25 Introducing the New Listing-to-Pending Ratio

0:03:02 Why This Ratio is a Leading Market Indicator

0:06:15 Weekly New Listings Update: 1,594 and Counting

0:07:14 Price Drops Hit 91% of Price Movements

0:10:00 Ratio Hits 0.40: A Cold Market Signal

0:11:15 Year-over-Year: New Listings Up 27.5%

0:15:29 April’s Ratio at 0.45—Lowest Since 2004

0:18:00 Inventory Soars 635.6% Since April 2022

0:25:03 Consumer Sentiment Tanks: Demand Hits a Wall

0:30:04 Record High Active Listings Predicted in 10 Days

0:32:55 Buyers Gain Leverage with Quirky Demands

0:41:43 Rates Drop to 6.75%: Bond Market Improves

0:47:14 Activity Index Dips Below 20% for Resale

1:00:22 Bifurcated Market: Why Prices Are Still Rising

The April 14, 2025 Monday Touch Point unpacked Austin’s surging real estate inventory, with 15,241 active listings and a record-low 0.40 new listing-to-pending ratio. Key discussions included a bifurcated market driving price increases despite lower demand, buyer leverage in negotiations, and hyper-local strategies for sellers. The session forecasted continued inventory growth and highlighted value opportunities for buyers. Stay informed at https://teamprice.com/insight-and-statistics!