Active residential listings currently stand at 12,800 homes, which is up 12.8 percent compared to this time last year. While that number remains well below the prior cycle high of 18,146 listings reached in late June 2025, the year-over-year increase confirms that supply is rebuilding faster than demand. More than half of all active listings, specifically 52.6 percent, have already experienced at least one price reduction. That level of price adjustment is a strong signal that sellers are actively responding to market resistance rather than dictating terms.
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The composition of inventory matters as well. Of the 12,800 active listings, 3,953 are new construction and 8,847 are resale homes. This matters because resale properties are showing weaker demand metrics than new construction, which continues to benefit from builder incentives, rate buydowns, and pricing flexibility that many individual sellers cannot match. As resale inventory grows, pricing pressure is becoming more visible in established neighborhoods, particularly where competition among similar homes is high.
Pending listings help clarify demand, and that picture remains softer year over year. There are currently 3,354 pending listings compared to 3,443 at the same time last year, a decline of 2.6 percent. This means that even as more homes are coming onto the market, fewer are moving into contract. That imbalance between new supply and buyer absorption is one of the most important dynamics shaping the Austin housing market right now.
This imbalance shows up clearly in the Activity Index, which measures how efficiently listings are converting into pending sales. The overall Activity Index has declined from 23.3 percent last year to 20.8 percent today, a drop of nearly 11 percent. New construction is performing better with an Activity Index of 25.92 percent, while resale properties are lagging at 18.22 percent. That places much of the resale market firmly in the softening to contraction range, where listings take longer to sell and sellers lose leverage.
When the resale Activity Index is broken down by market phase, the data becomes even more telling. A large share of resale listings are now sitting in either the contraction or crisis zones, where buyer hesitation increases and price corrections tend to accelerate. Very few areas remain in true expansion territory. This confirms that the market is no longer broadly competitive and that pricing strategy matters more than timing alone.
Another way to see this pressure is through the new listing to pending ratio. Currently, that ratio sits at 0.58, well below the 25-year average of 0.82. Year to date, there are 688 more new listings than pending listings. Historically, a ratio below the long-term average signals that supply is outpacing demand, and that sellers must compete harder for fewer qualified buyers. This is not a short-term anomaly. It reflects a sustained shift toward a more buyer-sensitive environment.
Months of inventory reinforces this message. Austin now has 4.55 months of inventory, up 14.8 percent from last year. While this is not yet a distressed level, it represents a meaningful move away from the tight supply conditions that supported rapid price growth in prior years. In resale inventory specifically, many submarkets are now firmly in buyer advantage or buyer control territory, where homes sit longer and price reductions become more common.
Despite softer demand indicators, closed sales activity has not collapsed. A total of 1,829 homes have sold year to date, which is down 2.7 percent from last year but still nearly 20 percent above the long-term average. This suggests that transactions are still happening, but they are being supported by pricing adjustments rather than competitive pressure. Buyers are active, but they are selective and value-driven.
When normalized by population, sales activity remains below historical norms. Cumulative sold properties per 100,000 residents sits at 69, which is nearly 15 percent below average. This tells us that population growth alone is no longer enough to drive transaction volume at prior levels. Affordability and pricing alignment now play a larger role in whether households transact.
Looking at productivity per agent, cumulative sold properties per 1,000 Realtors stands at 106. That is up nearly 5 percent year over year but still about 10 percent below average. This indicates continued agent count pressure and confirms that transactions are being spread across a larger pool of licensed agents. From a brokerage perspective, this reinforces the importance of efficiency, specialization, and realistic expectations around deal flow.
Pricing trends continue to reflect the broader reset underway. The average sold price in January is $580,237, down nearly 15 percent from the May 2022 peak. The median sold price has fallen even more sharply, dropping over 22 percent from its peak to $427,250. Median prices tend to reflect buyer behavior more accurately, and this decline shows how affordability constraints have reshaped demand.
Compared to prices 36 months ago, the median sold price is down just over 5 percent, which underscores how quickly values surged and then corrected. While some higher-end segments have held up better, lower-priced and mid-range homes have experienced more consistent pressure, especially in areas with rising inventory.
The divergence between price tiers is becoming more pronounced. Homes in the bottom 25th percentile have seen prices decline modestly, while the top 25th percentile has still managed year-over-year gains. This split reflects both affordability challenges at the entry level and greater resilience among higher-income buyers. However, even upper-tier markets are no longer immune to longer days on market and negotiation.
City-level data further confirms that price appreciation is not widespread. Only six cities are up year over year in median price, while twenty-four are down. This broad-based softness suggests that the correction is structural rather than localized.
The absorption rate, defined as the ratio of sold listings to active listings, currently stands at 23.65 percent. That is well below the historical average of 31.61 percent. Lower absorption rates indicate that inventory is moving more slowly, which aligns with rising months of inventory and increased price reductions. Simply put, supply is winning the race right now.
Interestingly, the Market Flow Score tells a more nuanced story. At 8.59, it sits above the historical average of 6.59. This means that while demand is weaker relative to supply, the market is still functioning efficiently. Listings are not frozen, and transactions are still closing, but they are doing so through adjustment rather than momentum.
Looking forward, long-term projections help frame expectations. Using the Austin market’s 25-year compound appreciation rate of 4.576 percent, and assuming prices have bottomed near current levels, it would take approximately 69 months to return to the prior median peak reached in 2022. That places a potential recovery timeline into the early 2030s rather than the near term.
For buyers, this market offers leverage, selection, and time. For sellers, success depends heavily on pricing discipline and realistic expectations. For investors, the data reinforces the importance of yield, cash flow, and patience rather than appreciation-driven assumptions. For agents, this is a market that rewards preparation, clarity, and honest guidance.
The Austin housing market is not collapsing, but it is clearly recalibrating. Understanding where supply, demand, and pricing truly sit today is the key to navigating what comes next.
